If the 20th century is to be identified as the century of profound global political power struggles, with costly world wars and prolonged ideological conflicts, it is my expectation that at least the first half of the 21st century is going to see an exacerbation of the conflict between East and West and an eventual victory of democracy over oppression. 

Lebanon, in looking back on its experience in the 20th century, cannot feel satisfied with what it has accomplished. The reason for most of the failure, in my opinion, has not been for lack of talent or commitment from Lebanese people, but rather the lack of our ability to correctly read the realities and the strategic political dynamics that drove the 20th century. As a result, we missed some critical opportunities to pursue our goals more effectively and successfully. It is a fact that we were unable to see and accept the realities as they were. We were unable to move forward strategically and maneuver around the constraints so as to increase our chances of maximizing our gains and minimizing our losses. Instead, we engaged in futile ideologies, costly struggles and uphill battles to achieve what we simplistically perceived to be just for the "Arab cause". We pursued wishful thinking, and the outcome, obviously, has been very disappointing. It is sad to say that Christians at large have been more responsible than any other religious group in bringing the country to where we currently are. 

If Lebanon is to reverse its fortunes in the 21st century and join the winners of tomorrow, we will first have to correctly understand the parameters and the guiding forces of the new world order. We have to engage in a strategic reorganization to play in the 21st century game with maximum skill and effectiveness. If the "macro" game plan of the 21st century is aligning with the winners of tomorrow, we have to accept the fact that this cannot be achieved effectively without implementing fundamental changes on several critical fronts. 

Role of government leaders: It is clear for example that Lebanon suffers today from too heavy a dependence on our government leaders. For every problem we face, the solution has been posed in terms of what the government leaders should do. We often build up unrealistic expectations of what we want from them and then end up disappointed by their inability to deliver all what we wish. For decades our leaders have dominated the fabric of all aspects of our societies. They have been expected to be the "providers", and, as such, they exercise ultimate control and, as a result, they are often sensitive to criticism because they feel they are doing all they can do to satisfy popular demand.

Role of private sector: In order to break this vicious circle, we need to ask the private sector to assume greater responsibility. We are entitled to expect the private sector to satisfy a large proportion of society's needs. We must stop expecting our leaders to fulfill all of our needs. In fact, we have to adopt a fundamental change in the way we define the various roles of the key players in our society. In my opinion the business community currently operates in isolation of the wider interests of our society. In most cases, their sole motivation has been to increase their individual net worth and, in the process, they have avoided any meaningful role in dealing with the social needs of their own communities. Businessmen, in their relationships with their government leaders, have often been hypocrites, feigning blind obedience in order to protect their own material interests. Time has come for the business community, comprised of both the banking and industrial clans, to play a more prominent role in supporting the social fabric and the infrastructure that underpins our country. This is critical to unlocking the potential of Lebanon. 

Role of central and local governments: Another area that I can cite as one requiring change in Lebanon is the respective roles of central and local governments. A clean split between them is necessary. The more decentralization, the better the chance of achieving efficiency and securing public satisfaction. Our government structures, taxation systems, and the entire administrative organization need substantial overhauling in order to gear up to meet the competitive challenges of the 21st century.

Role of financial markets: It is clear that as of today, steps to establish effective capital markets in Lebanon have not advanced beyond a primary stage. No country in the region or for that matter even outside of it can today attempt to have comprehensive capital markets within its limited borders or within a small group of "politically correct" neighbors. For corporate and industrial entities to grow and prosper, they have to set their sights across the entire globe to attract skilled labor and talented management and to raise new capital. Syrian labor are not for example particularly skilled and can provide neither real vision nor value-added to Lebanon if the aim is to compete with Israel one day. On the same note, Lebanese institutions must aspire to build international standards of management practice to run companies which are competitive and responsive to international market demand. Most of the companies in Lebanon today are still unfortunately not management-driven; and the primary shareholder still sits on the board while the general manager is restricted in his discretion and is perceived by that same board more of an advisor than a fully responsible manager.

Role of manufacturing sector: If we are to learn anything from the history of developing nations, it is that the financial services industry must always move in tandem with the manufacturing industry to create the growth rate that is sought. It is sad to note that in this regards, the current Hariri administration seems to have completely missed the point. What is the purpose of erecting multi-million dollar commercial and residential properties if the Lebanese government have not yet devised any specific policies regarding the manufacturing industry ? How on earth are people going to pay for these real estate properties if they do not have jobs to support both their lifestyle and the economy? What is the use of Lebanon's banking industry if they can't lend money to the core of the Lebanese economy (i.e.: the manufacturing industry)?  Whilst local firms should be able to restructure in the short term, the medium term challenge for the Lebanese manufacturing industry is to become competitive in at least a regional context. As to the long term challenge, it will include the creation of jobs. Already, unemployment and emigration are acute problems in Lebanon and even under the most optimistic scenario, financial and non-financial services alone will not provide work for the country's growing population. Support for the manufacturing sector should, therefore, be a serious priority for Lebanon's government.

Role of education: One of the most important areas that needs careful attention and comprehensive overhauling is the current educational system in Lebanon. A well developed educational system is one of the key pillars of an advanced society. The quality of human resource development is absolutely critical. What needs improvement is not the availability or accessibility of education, which Lebanon enjoys, but rather the quality of education. I feel that we need to transform our primary and secondary education system from one based on memorization to a system that trains us in how to think, how to be creative, imaginative, provocative, controversial and productive. We need an educational system that encourages open debate, deep analysis and strategic thinking. A recent study conducted in five schools (representing a stratified random sample of high schools in Lebanon) by the American University of Beirut shows that 91% of the graduating students had not yet decided on their future field of study and/or university. Moreover, students had little help in discovering their skills, abilities, interests, and other personal characteristics. Consequently, student choices are being based on the commonly known fields of study as well as the "prestige" of the intended degree and the economic status of their parents. Time has come to remedy these problems well before students reach college; unless Lebanon wants to see its sons and daughters hostage to the same situation their parents locked themselves in for the last two decades.

Role of middle class: The final area requiring attention, which I would rate as the single most important, is the need for the liberation of Lebanon's middle and lower class. We cannot build a healthy society and a successful nation while 95% if not more, of our human talent and capabilities remain prisoners of rhetoric, not allowed to fulfill their full potential.

So, what should the middle class do?

Other than voting, a greater effort should be allocated to opening society and building attitudes of tolerance. One has to build institutions: women's organizations, a more open press. A society that doesn't debate controversial issues will, when presented with political opportunity, often split along ethnic or tribal lines.

The main question however remains: As Lebanese knock at the gate of the 21st century, can they bid farewell to the cluster of ideas that the alibi of the struggle for the "Arab cause" such prime importance in their lives?. Can they hold their rulers accountable? Can they reclaim their politics? In other words, can they reform their political life without the detour, the excuse of "Arab nationalism"? I guess it's up to them.

With the status quo no longer an option, we must recognize that there is no feasible alternative for Lebanon other than to move forward to implement comprehensive change. Short of that, Lebanon is doomed to being again with the "losing" camp of nations and the have nots for the next fifty years.

© Copyright 1997-2004 United States Committee For A Free Lebanon. All rights reserved.

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